What’s Shaping Public Perception and is Grok Becoming a Source of Truth in the Upcoming Canadian Election

AI's idea of what a Canadian election looks like!

With a federal election on the horizon, the three major political parties are ratcheting up their campaigns. With Carney now installed as the new Liberal leader, we wanted to see how the parties’ messaging strategies are battling it out in the social sphere.

Each party will be working to position their leader as the most effective choice against an aggressive Trump presidency with a platform that can build a more resilient economy.

We are kicking off our series by looking at the data from early March 2025 and will continue to update our analysis as the campaigns kick into high gear.

Let’s see which message strategies are resonating by examining what is sticking to each party leader.

But first, the role of Grok: Over the past week, Grok has been one of the top posters by volume, posting over 2000 posts about Mark Carney and Pierre Poilievre on X, but not Jagmeet Singh. This is because X rolled out a new feature on Mar 7, 2025 enabling users to publicly tag Grok and Canadians are using it to ask questions about politicians.

This reliance on Grok for political information is significant, as it's unclear how Grok, like all AI, distinguishes facts from false narratives. Since Grok's content is primarily based on opinions from X, there is the potential it could be influenced by bots and other actors.

We asked Grok this very question and its answer suggests it has the ability to sniff out bot farms and is not only influenced by volume of posts. However, it did admit it is not infallible – just like humans – if a false narrative penetrates other forms of verifiable data.

Grok's response to the question: is it possible your answers could be influenced by bots who post high volumes of false narratives?

Why this matters: If Canadians continue to leverage Grok, or other AI tools, as their source of truth to inform election decisions, how these AI tools collect and validate information will become increasingly relevant.

The Upcoming Canadian Federal Election - What's Landing?

Mark Carney

The Conservatives are launching a two-pronged attack on Mark Carney: linking him to the previous Trudeau government and portraying him as unethical. While both tactics are making waves, the effort to associate him with the current Liberal government isn't resonating as expected.

Our analysis shows that federally elected Conservatives' attempts to pin the Trudeau government on Carney aren't resonating with Canadians in proportion to the effort. Questioning Carney's integrity is gaining more traction, but what's really striking a chord is the portrayal of Carney as an out-of-touch elite globalist—a narrative driven by Maple MAGA accounts, a movement Poilievre is eager to distance himself from.

This chart underscores the contrast between the attacks by Conservative MPs concerning on Carney and the focus prevalent among Canadians on X (formerly Twitter).

Pierre Poilievre

Pierre Poilievre’s team is pushing a "Canada First" message to distance himself from Trump and MAGA associations, and it's resonating with Canadians. The narrative the Liberal party is pushing that Poilievre is “like Trump” is making headway, week over week. However, questions about his security clearance, which has dogged Poilievre for a long time, and appears to be sticky.  

Meanwhile, new attacks by the Liberals challenging him on his ethics, likely a response to the Conservative "Carney Loophole" message, is not yet gaining traction.

Bar chart illustrating the share of voice for key attacks on Poilievre on X/Twitter, highlighting that comparisons to Trump and issues with security clearance are the most prominent topics. Data from Canadian geolocated posts is compared over two weeks in March 2025.

Jagmeet Singh

The NDP is struggling to gain traction compared to other parties. While their message of supporting workers resonates, their attacks on other party leaders aren't having an impact.

The Liberal campaign hasn't even mentioned Singh or the NDP in the past week. The perception he does have to overcome is that his coalition with the Liberals is a liability. We see below his share of voice is dwarfed by the other party candidates, especially on the tail of the Liberal leadership campaign over the weekend. A measure of volume isn't necessarily the most important metric to track but the fact Singh is barely registering should be a red flag to his campaign team.

Our initial analysis provides a snapshot of the current political landscape and the narratives shaping public perception as we approach a potential federal election.

As campaigns intensify and new developments unfold, we will continue to monitor and analyze the evolving strategies and their impact on voters.

Stay tuned for more in-depth insights and updates in the coming weeks.