Unveiling the Forces Shaping Canadian Discourse on the Israel-Iran Conflict
- lostfield
- 12 minutes ago
- 5 min read
We decided to dive into the data behind two dominant narratives emerging from the Israel-Iran War: anti-Israel sentiment tied to accusations of genocide and anti-Iran sentiment linked to terrorism.
Our goal is to examine how these narratives play out in Canadian online discourse and identify the key influencers driving the conversation. As this is a highly sensitive topic, we’re sticking strictly to the data—leaving commentary on the conflict itself aside.
Our Business Question: Is Canadian online discourse more heavily influenced by anti-Israel or anti-Iran sentiment, and who are the key influencers shaping these narratives?
Methodology: Navigating a Charged Topic Analyzing sentiment in a war-related context is tricky. AI tools often struggle to accurately assign negative sentiment to one party or another due to the inherently emotional nature of conflict-related discussions. To address this, we focused on high-impact keywords and manually verified their relevance to ensure accuracy. While not perfect, this approach allowed us to capture the essence of the online conversation in Canada.
Our data focused on X, from January to June 24, 2025, using specific keywords associated with each narrative: “genocide” and “genocidal” for Israel, and “terrorist” and “terrorism” for Iran. These terms, often charged with intense emotion, are commonly used to express strong negative sentiment toward either side.
Key Findings: A Tale of Two Narratives in the Israel-Iran Conflict
Graph depicting the volume of Canadian X/Twitter posts regarding the Israel/Iran conflict from January to June, highlighting spikes in discussions surrounding major events such as the arrest of Mahmoud Khalil, a visit by 'Bibi' in DC, an advance in Gaza, and a G7 meeting. The blue line represents mentions of Israel + genocide while the green line denotes mentions of Iran + terrorism.
Our analysis revealed that anti-Israel sentiment, tied to the “genocide” narrative, slightly outweighs anti-Iran sentiment linked to “terrorism” in overall post volume. However, the difference isn’t overwhelming—both narratives see significant peaks tied to major news events. For example:
Arrest of Mahmoud Khalil, ceasefire talks, and prisoner exchanges sparked notable spikes in conversation.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s visit to Washington, D.C., in April 2025 significantly ignited Canadian discussions, particularly around the anti-Israel narrative.
Since May 2025, as Israel advanced in Gaza and initiated direct conflict with Iran, the “genocide” narrative surged, creating a clearer differentiation from the “terrorism” narrative tied to Iran.
Interestingly, U.S.-based events, like political developments in D.C., also influenced Canadian discourse, despite our focus on geolocated posts within Canada.
2. Influencers vs. General Population
When we zoomed in on Canada’s top 70 influencers on X (measured by engagement on political content), a striking reversal emerged. While the general population leaned slightly toward the anti-Israel “genocide” narrative, these influencers disproportionately amplified the anti-Iran “terrorism” narrative—by a factor of roughly five to one. Key moments, like Israel’s strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and U.S. strikes on the Fordow site, drove significant bumps in this narrative among influencers. This discrepancy suggests that influential accounts may be shaping the conversation in ways that don’t fully align with broader public sentiment.
3. Regional Differences
We also examined the discourse by province, revealing distinct regional patterns:
-Ontario dominates the conversation, accounting for over half of all mentions. Here, the anti-Israel “genocide” narrative slightly edges out the anti-Iran “terrorism” narrative (60% vs. 40%).
Alberta and Atlantic Canada lean toward the anti-Iran narrative, with 60% of mentions focused on Iran as a terrorist state.
Quebec surprised us. Despite significant protests in Montreal, the anti-Israel narrative wasn’t as dominant as expected, aligning more closely with Ontario’s 60-40 split.
British Columbia also tilted toward the anti-Israel narrative, though less intensely than Ontario.
The Role of Bots and Shaping Operations
A significant finding was the presence of high-volume accounts—some posting up to 130 times per day, totaling 25,000 to 55,000 posts over a year. Such volumes strongly suggest the involvement of bots or coordinated campaigns. Markers of potential bot activity include:
High-frequency reposting with no original content.
Account names with random numbers or generic formats.
Hijacked or abandoned accounts reactivated during key moments to push specific narratives.
While some accounts may belong to highly dedicated individuals, the scale and patterns point to automated or organized efforts to shape the discourse. These “shaping operations” often activate during high-impact news events, amplifying emotional narratives to influence public perception. ### What Does This Mean for Canadians?
For Individuals
Your social media feed is not a reliable gauge of public sentiment. Organized campaigns, bot activity, and echo chambers created by following like-minded accounts can distort your view of the conflict. Always approach online content with skepticism and seek multiple perspectives to understand the broader context.
For Businesses
The data highlights the risks of reputational damage in polarized conversations. We saw this in October 2023, when a fast-food brand’s decision to provide food to emergency responders in Israel sparked a global boycott. Companies must: - Avoid knee-jerk reactions to social media pressure, which may be amplified by bots or coordinated campaigns. - Use multiple data points, including qualitative insights, to assess true stakeholder sentiment. - Compare their exposure to competitors to gauge the scale of reputational risk. - Prepare measured responses to avoid overreacting to orchestrated trolling.
A Broader Lesson
The Danger of Echo Chambers One anecdote from the 2024 U.S. election underscores the risks of relying on social media for insight. Analysts noted that some Democratic Party decision-makers, heavily active on X, were surrounded by positive reinforcement from like-minded accounts. This created a feedback loop that obscured broader public sentiment, potentially contributing to strategic missteps. Similarly, in Canada, the gap between general population sentiment and influencer-driven narratives highlights how echo chambers can skew perceptions.
Final Thoughts
The Israel-Iran conflict is a deeply complex and emotional topic, and its ripple effects are felt in Canadian online spaces. Our data shows a slight edge for anti-Israel sentiment in the general population, but a stark reversal among influencers, with regional variations adding further nuance. Bots and shaping operations play a significant role, particularly during high-impact news cycles. For individuals and businesses alike, the takeaway is clear: approach social media with critical thinking, seek diverse data sources, and resist the pull of echo chambers. Thank you for joining us on this deep dive into the data. Subscribe to Spin Nation for more insights, share this post, and let us know your thoughts. Until next time, keep questioning the noise.
Note: This blog post reflects the podcast’s commitment to data-driven analysis and avoids taking sides on the conflict. For more details on our methodology or to share feedback, reach out via our podcast channels. ---
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